Elo Win Probability Formula:
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The Elo rating system is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in competitor-versus-competitor games. It was originally developed for chess but is now used in many other games and sports.
The calculator uses the Elo win probability formula:
Where:
Explanation: The formula calculates the expected outcome between two players based on their rating difference. A 400-point difference means the higher-rated player is 10 times more likely to win.
Details: Understanding win probabilities helps in matchmaking, tournament predictions, and analyzing player performance. It's also used for calculating rating changes after games.
Tips: Enter both players' Elo ratings. The calculator will show the probability that Player A wins and Player B wins. Ratings must be positive numbers.
Q1: What does a 400-point rating difference mean?
A: A 400-point difference means the higher-rated player is expected to win about 90.9% of the time (10:1 odds).
Q2: What's considered a significant rating difference?
A: Differences of 200+ points are significant (about 75% win probability). Differences under 100 points are relatively small (about 64% win probability).
Q3: How are rating changes calculated after a game?
A: The winner gains points equal to K×(1 - expected win probability), while the loser loses the same amount (K is typically 16-32 for established players).
Q4: Does this work for team games?
A: Yes, the same formula can be used by averaging team ratings, though some variations use different formulas for team calculations.
Q5: What's the origin of the 400 constant?
A: The 400 value determines how quickly win probability changes with rating difference. It was chosen to provide meaningful rating scales in chess.